The Copom stopped cutting; defaults did not stop rising
At its Nov. 4 meeting, the Copom (the Central Bank's monetary policy committee) held the Selic at 13.75% a year, unanimously, after five cuts of 0.25 point since March. During the cuts, defaults kept rising: credit delinquency, which stood at 4.52% in the month of the first cut, reached 5.05% in August, the highest in the Central Bank series, which begins in 2011. In September it stood at 4.98%; a year earlier, it was 4.09%.
Debt also weighs more: household debt to banks reached 50.1% of 12-month income in August, the highest since the series began, in 2005. The delinquency rate in the chart covers the whole portfolio, people and companies. The Copom's next meeting ends on Dec. 9.
Delinquency on the credit portfolio (individuals and companies), % of the total, by month, and the Selic target, from 2019 to Nov. 4, 2026
View as table
| Month | Credit delinquency (%) | Selic target at month end (% a year) |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 2026 | 5.0 | 13.8 |
| Aug 2026 | 5.1 | 14.0 |
| Jul 2026 | 4.9 | 14.3 |
| Jun 2026 | 4.6 | 14.3 |
| May 2026 | 4.8 | 14.5 |
| Apr 2026 | 4.6 | 14.5 |
| Mar 2026 | 4.5 | 14.8 |
| Feb 2026 | 4.6 | 15.0 |
| Jan 2026 | 4.4 | 15.0 |
| Dec 2025 | 4.2 | 15.0 |
| Nov 2025 | 4.2 | 15.0 |
| Oct 2025 | 4.2 | 15.0 |
| Sep 2025 | 4.1 | 15.0 |
| Aug 2025 | 4.1 | 15.0 |
| Jul 2025 | 4.0 | 15.0 |
| Jun 2025 | 3.8 | 15.0 |
| May 2025 | 3.7 | 14.8 |
| Apr 2025 | 3.7 | 14.3 |
| Mar 2025 | 3.4 | 14.3 |
| Feb 2025 | 3.4 | 13.3 |
| Jan 2025 | 3.3 | 13.3 |
| Dec 2024 | 3.1 | 12.3 |
| Nov 2024 | 3.3 | 11.3 |
| Oct 2024 | 3.3 | 10.8 |
| Sep 2024 | 3.3 | 10.8 |
| Aug 2024 | 3.3 | 10.5 |
| Jul 2024 | 3.3 | 10.5 |
| Jun 2024 | 3.3 | 10.5 |
| May 2024 | 3.4 | 10.5 |
| Apr 2024 | 3.4 | 10.8 |
| Mar 2024 | 3.3 | 10.8 |
| Feb 2024 | 3.4 | 11.3 |
| Jan 2024 | 3.4 | 11.8 |
| Dec 2023 | 3.3 | 11.8 |
| Nov 2023 | 3.5 | 12.3 |
| Oct 2023 | 3.6 | 12.8 |
| Sep 2023 | 3.5 | 12.8 |
| Aug 2023 | 3.6 | 13.3 |
| Jul 2023 | 3.6 | 13.8 |
| Jun 2023 | 3.6 | 13.8 |
| May 2023 | 3.7 | 13.8 |
| Apr 2023 | 3.5 | 13.8 |
| Mar 2023 | 3.4 | 13.8 |
| Feb 2023 | 3.4 | 13.8 |
| Jan 2023 | 3.2 | 13.8 |
| Dec 2022 | 3.1 | 13.8 |
| Nov 2022 | 3.1 | 13.8 |
| Oct 2022 | 3.0 | 13.8 |
| Sep 2022 | 2.9 | 13.8 |
| Aug 2022 | 2.9 | 13.8 |
| Jul 2022 | 2.8 | 13.3 |
| Jun 2022 | 2.7 | 13.3 |
| May 2022 | 2.8 | 12.8 |
| Apr 2022 | 2.7 | 11.8 |
| Mar 2022 | 2.7 | 11.8 |
| Feb 2022 | 2.6 | 10.8 |
| Jan 2022 | 2.5 | 9.3 |
| Dec 2021 | 2.4 | 9.3 |
| Nov 2021 | 2.4 | 7.8 |
| Oct 2021 | 2.3 | 7.8 |
| Sep 2021 | 2.3 | 6.3 |
| Aug 2021 | 2.4 | 5.3 |
| Jul 2021 | 2.4 | 4.3 |
| Jun 2021 | 2.3 | 4.3 |
| May 2021 | 2.4 | 3.5 |
| Apr 2021 | 2.2 | 2.8 |
| Mar 2021 | 2.2 | 2.8 |
| Feb 2021 | 2.3 | 2.0 |
| Jan 2021 | 2.2 | 2.0 |
| Dec 2020 | 2.2 | 2.0 |
| Nov 2020 | 2.3 | 2.0 |
| Oct 2020 | 2.4 | 2.0 |
| Sep 2020 | 2.5 | 2.0 |
| Aug 2020 | 2.7 | 2.0 |
| Jul 2020 | 2.8 | 2.3 |
| Jun 2020 | 3.0 | 2.3 |
| May 2020 | 3.3 | 3.0 |
| Apr 2020 | 3.4 | 3.8 |
| Mar 2020 | 3.2 | 3.8 |
| Feb 2020 | 3.1 | 4.3 |
| Jan 2020 | 3.1 | 4.5 |
| Dec 2019 | 3.0 | 4.5 |
| Nov 2019 | 3.1 | 5.0 |
| Oct 2019 | 3.1 | 5.0 |
| Sep 2019 | 3.1 | 5.5 |
| Aug 2019 | 3.1 | 6.0 |
| Jul 2019 | 3.1 | 6.5 |
| Jun 2019 | 3.0 | 6.5 |
| May 2019 | 3.1 | 6.5 |
| Apr 2019 | 3.1 | 6.5 |
| Mar 2019 | 3.0 | 6.5 |
| Feb 2019 | 3.0 | 6.5 |
| Jan 2019 | 3.0 | 6.5 |
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This is the English edition of a chart first published in Portuguese. Ver o original em português →