Lula re-elected president of Brazil: runoff 2026 count and polls
President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) has been re-elected to a fourth term, according to the count by Brazil's Superior Electoral Court (TSE). At 91.95% of ballot boxes counted he had 51.62% of valid votes against 48.38% for Flávio Bolsonaro (PL), a lead of 3,694,214 votes. Polls had shown a tight race, with most giving Flávio Bolsonaro a slight edge.
Brazil votes on Oct. 25, 2026 in the runoff of its presidential election: President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) against Flávio Bolsonaro (PL). Voting was extended to 7 pm Brasília time nationwide by a Supreme Court justice, after the original 5 pm closing. This page follows the official count as results come in. Versão completa em português →
91.95% of ballot boxes counted · shares of valid votes (blank and null votes excluded) · updated Oct 25, 9:03 pm (Brasília time) · source: count by Brazil's Superior Electoral Court (TSE), as reported by the press.
Votes abroad
Brazilians living abroad vote at consulates and embassies. These ballot-box bulletins are counted ahead of the rest of the country.
Lula leads in 44 of these countries and Flávio Bolsonaro in 12. In the first round (Oct. 4), abroad, Lula had 47.6% and Flávio Bolsonaro 43.5% of valid votes, with the rest going to other candidates.
Source: ballot-box bulletins published by Brazil's electoral court (TSE) and transcribed by the press; not the official total. Updated Oct 25, 4:34 pm (Brasília time). Votes abroad are a small share of the roughly 125 million votes cast in Brazil in the first round.
The polls before election day
Average of 51 polls released after the first round, valid votes (blank and null excluded). A simple average, not weighted by sample size or pollster record.
Each poll has a margin of error of 1.0 to 2.6 points. Flávio Bolsonaro is ahead in 44 of the 51; most gaps are inside the margin of error, which makes the race a statistical tie.
- First round (Oct. 4): Flávio Bolsonaro 47.03%, Lula 45.16% of valid votes. Most polls had underestimated Flávio Bolsonaro.
- Polls are snapshots with a margin of error, not predictions. They are shown here for context; the official count above is what decides the race.
How the race moved since the first round
Flávio Bolsonaro's share of valid votes in each poll since Sept. 9 (dots; hollow = calculated by us from the totals) and a 7-day moving average (line).
Latest polls
| Pollster | Fieldwork (Oct.) | Sample · margin | Valid votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| PoderData | 23–24/10 | 4,000 · ±1.6 | Lula 49.0 × 51.0 Flávio B. |
| CNT/MDA | 21–23/10 | 2,032 · ±2.2 | Lula 49.3 × 50.7 Flávio B. |
| França | 21–23/10 | 1,537 · ±2.5 | Lula 48.6 × 51.4 Flávio B. |
| Nexus/BTG | 23–24/10 | 2,000 · ±2.2 | Lula 49.5 × 50.5 Flávio B. |
| Palver | 22–24/10 | 5,000 · ±2.2 | Lula 49.5 × 50.5 Flávio B. (calc.) |
| Colectta | 23/10 | 3,000 · ±2.0 | Lula 50.3 × 49.7 Flávio B. |
| Quaest | 23–24/10 | 3,702 · ±2.0 | Lula 49.0 × 51.0 Flávio B. |
| Futura | 23–24/10 | 2,000 · ±2.2 | Lula 49.9 × 50.1 Flávio B. |
| Datafolha | 23–24/10 | 4,050 · ±2.0 | Lula 49.0 × 51.0 Flávio B. |
| AtlasIntel | 18–23/10 | 4,990 · ±1.0 | Lula 49.2 × 50.8 Flávio B. |
Each poll was registered with Brazil's electoral court (TSE), as the law requires. The Portuguese version of this page has all 51 polls, registration numbers and detailed breakdowns.
About these numbers
- Official results come from Brazil's Superior Electoral Court (TSE). Numbers on this page are transcribed from press reports of the court's count and can lag it by minutes.
- Valid votes exclude blank and null ballots, which is how Brazil's electoral law decides a winner.
- Early counts mislead. Ballot boxes arrive in a fixed order: small towns, and in this runoff votes abroad, are counted first. The share of each candidate usually moves a lot as large cities report.
- Voting is compulsory for most adults in Brazil, and about 158.7 million people are registered to vote. In the first round, abstention was 21.08%.
Dado Bruto is an independent Brazilian data and news site. Corrections: contato@dadobruto.com.