Dado Bruto in English
Long-form analysis of Brazil's economy, labor market, payments and elections, built on public data, with our own charts and the sources behind every number. These are English editions of our Portuguese analyses.
- Elections · RunoffBrazil's 2026 runoff: official results, polls and what comes next
The official count, the vote abroad and the polling average for the Oct. 25, 2026 runoff between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro.
- Elections 2026 · Runoff · Preliminary analysis2026 runoff result: Lula flipped Minas Gerais and added 10.4 million votes
Lula received 51.8% of the valid votes and Flávio Bolsonaro, 48.2%, with 99.8% of polling stations counted. Seven charts show where the vote changed from the first round to the runoff: states, cities and turnout. Preliminary analysis.
- Elections 2026 · First roundMunicipality by municipality: what changed from the 2022 first round to the 2026 one
Lula received 45.2% of the valid votes and Flávio Bolsonaro, 47.0%. We compared 5,570 municipalities with 2022 and 2018 to show where the difference was built, where it held and where the state pattern does not apply.
- Economy · ExpectationsOver 25 years, the market missed next year's inflation by 1.6 points on average
For GDP, the average miss was 1.6 points; for the Selic (Brazil's benchmark interest rate), 2.5. The error shrinks as the year goes on, and the biggest misses are concentrated in a few years of shock.
- Labor · PNAD ContínuaUnemployment is near its lowest level since 2012. What the rate does not show
The rate stands at 5.3%, a step away from the record low of 5.1%. But fewer people are looking for work than in 2019, discouragement still exceeds 2014 levels, and only one in three jobs created since 2012 is a formal private-sector job.
- Income · Minimum wageThe minimum wage buys three times as much as in 1995. Most of the gain came before 2012
Adjusted for inflation, the January 1995 minimum wage would be worth R$ 528 today. The September 2026 one is R$ 1,621. Since 2012, it has risen 17% and kept pace with the average earnings of working people.
- Income · BettingThe size of what was banned: Brazil's betting sites in numbers
In 2025, bettors deposited R$ 220.6 billion with licensed betting sites and got R$ 183.7 billion back. The difference, R$ 36.9 billion, stayed with the companies. On Sept. 25, 2026, a provisional measure ordered the sector shut down.
- Payments · Central Bank of BrazilPix became the rail of Brazilian money. And a trade-policy issue
In four years, the system went from 9.4 billion to 79.8 billion transactions a year. It now accounts for more than half of all payments in the country, carried a large share of the money bet on online betting sites, and landed on the list…
- Credit · HouseholdsBrazilian households owe half a year of income. The problem is the monthly payment
Household debt to banks has reached 49.9% of annual income, the highest level since at least 2012. But what squeezes is debt service: 28.2% of income goes to interest and installments, more than double the burden in the United States.
- Interest rates · Brazil and the worldFive rate cuts later, Brazil still tops the real interest rate podium
The Selic (Brazil's benchmark interest rate) has fallen to 13.75%, but after discounting expected inflation, Brazilian interest rates are still the highest among 40 countries, more than five times the group average. How we got here, in…
- Labor · PNAD ContínuaUnemployment fell in every state. The gap between them depends on the yardstick
Between 2021 and 2026, the unemployment rate fell in all 27 federative units (26 states plus the Federal District). Measured in points, the gap between the best and the worst state was cut in half. Measured as a ratio, it grew.
- In charts · No. 1 · October 2026Inflation since the pandemic, in six charts
From January 2020 to September 2026, using data from IBGE and the Central Bank. Little text: each chart says one thing, and the title is already the conclusion. Each can be shared on its own.
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