Lula lost the runoff in all 9 states where labor income is above the national average
In the 9 states where average labor income was above the national average in 2025 (R$ 3,584 a month), Flávio Bolsonaro won the runoff. From the Federal District, with the highest income, to Goiás.
Lula won in 13 states, all with income below the average. The relationship does not hold for every low-income state: Acre, Espírito Santo, Rondônia, Roraima and Tocantins gave Flávio Bolsonaro the victory.
9 of 9 states with above-average income voted for Flávio Bolsonaro
Average labor income in 2025 (R$ a month) and Lula's valid votes in the 2026 runoff (%), by state
DadoBruto.com
Average labor income and vote for Lula in the 2026 runoff, by state: Lula lost in the 9 states with income above the national average Lula won Flávio Bolsonaro won 20% 40% 60% 80% 50% R$ 2,000 R$ 3,000 R$ 4,000 R$ 5,000 R$ 6,000 national average: R$ 3,584 Federal District: average labor income of R$ 6,458 in 2025; Lula got 45.72% in the runoff São Paulo: average labor income of R$ 4,291 in 2025; Lula got 46.15% in the runoff Rio de Janeiro: average labor income of R$ 4,195 in 2025; Lula got 46.90% in the runoff Santa Catarina: average labor income of R$ 4,163 in 2025; Lula got 30.58% in the runoff Paraná: average labor income of R$ 4,136 in 2025; Lula got 37.42% in the runoff Rio Grande do Sul: average labor income of R$ 3,969 in 2025; Lula got 42.16% in the runoff Mato Grosso do Sul: average labor income of R$ 3,766 in 2025; Lula got 40.40% in the runoff Mato Grosso: average labor income of R$ 3,667 in 2025; Lula got 33.94% in the runoff Goiás: average labor income of R$ 3,619 in 2025; Lula got 40.34% in the runoff Espírito Santo: average labor income of R$ 3,493 in 2025; Lula got 43.63% in the runoff Minas Gerais: average labor income of R$ 3,390 in 2025; Lula got 50.43% in the runoff Rondônia: average labor income of R$ 3,336 in 2025; Lula got 30.39% in the runoff Roraima: average labor income of R$ 3,328 in 2025; Lula got 27.54% in the runoff Tocantins: average labor income of R$ 3,107 in 2025; Lula got 48.63% in the runoff Amapá: average labor income of R$ 3,077 in 2025; Lula got 52.88% in the runoff Rio Grande do Norte: average labor income of R$ 2,950 in 2025; Lula got 65.72% in the runoff Acre: average labor income of R$ 2,796 in 2025; Lula got 33.43% in the runoff Amazonas: average labor income of R$ 2,763 in 2025; Lula got 54.02% in the runoff Sergipe: average labor income of R$ 2,744 in 2025; Lula got 69.53% in the runoff Pernambuco: average labor income of R$ 2,679 in 2025; Lula got 69.20% in the runoff Alagoas: average labor income of R$ 2,461 in 2025; Lula got 60.77% in the runoff Paraíba: average labor income of R$ 2,431 in 2025; Lula got 67.46% in the runoff Pará: average labor income of R$ 2,404 in 2025; Lula got 55.02% in the runoff Piauí: average labor income of R$ 2,398 in 2025; Lula got 75.88% in the runoff Ceará: average labor income of R$ 2,350 in 2025; Lula got 68.93% in the runoff Bahia: average labor income of R$ 2,238 in 2025; Lula got 71.31% in the runoff Maranhão: average labor income of R$ 2,139 in 2025; Lula got 69.54% in the runoff DF SP RJ SC MG RR PI MA
Source: IBGE, PNAD Contínua (average labor income, 2025); TSE, 2026 runoff result. Dado Bruto calculation: cross-reference by state.
View as table State Average labor income, 2025 (R$) Lula in the runoff (% of valid votes) Winner Federal District 6,458.0 45.7 Flávio Bolsonaro São Paulo 4,291.0 46.2 Flávio Bolsonaro Rio de Janeiro 4,195.0 46.9 Flávio Bolsonaro Santa Catarina 4,163.0 30.6 Flávio Bolsonaro Paraná 4,136.0 37.4 Flávio Bolsonaro Rio Grande do Sul 3,969.0 42.2 Flávio Bolsonaro Mato Grosso do Sul 3,766.0 40.4 Flávio Bolsonaro Mato Grosso 3,667.0 33.9 Flávio Bolsonaro Goiás 3,619.0 40.3 Flávio Bolsonaro Espírito Santo 3,493.0 43.6 Flávio Bolsonaro Minas Gerais 3,390.0 50.4 Lula Rondônia 3,336.0 30.4 Flávio Bolsonaro Roraima 3,328.0 27.5 Flávio Bolsonaro Tocantins 3,107.0 48.6 Flávio Bolsonaro Amapá 3,077.0 52.9 Lula Rio Grande do Norte 2,950.0 65.7 Lula Acre 2,796.0 33.4 Flávio Bolsonaro Amazonas 2,763.0 54.0 Lula Sergipe 2,744.0 69.5 Lula Pernambuco 2,679.0 69.2 Lula Alagoas 2,461.0 60.8 Lula Paraíba 2,431.0 67.5 Lula Pará 2,404.0 55.0 Lula Piauí 2,398.0 75.9 Lula Ceará 2,350.0 68.9 Lula Bahia 2,238.0 71.3 Lula Maranhão 2,139.0 69.5 Lula
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