2026 runoff result: Lula flipped Minas Gerais and added 10.4 million votes

Lula finished the runoff with 51.77% of the valid votes, against 48.23% for Flávio Bolsonaro, in TSE data (the Superior Electoral Court) with 99.80% of polling stations counted (the remainder was projected in each state). In the first round, Flávio had 47.03% and Lula, 45.16%. Lula's margin over Flávio went from 2.22 million votes behind in the first round to 4.40 million ahead in the runoff: a swing of 6.63 million votes.

This text shows where and by how much the vote changed, state by state and in the 189 largest cities. It does not explain why each voter voted as they did. The vote is secret, and the counting numbers show totals, not individual trajectories.

The national balance

Lula added 10.37 million votes between the rounds (+19.2%) and Flávio, 3.74 million (+6.7%). Of the 14.10 million votes the two gained together, 73.5% went to Lula. In the head-to-head contest between the two, Lula's share went from 48.99% to 51.77%, or 2.79 points.

Where that room came from, in terms of the arithmetic: the other candidates had 9.32 million votes in the first round (Augusto Cury, 3.45 million; Renan Santos, 2.68 million; Ronaldo Caiado, 2.61 million; the other nine candidates make up the rest). Valid votes grew by 4.79 million, for two reasons: about 2.97 million more people turned out and 1.82 million blank and spoiled votes ceased to exist. The sum checks out: 9.32 + 4.79 = 14.10 million. But this is a balance sheet, not a migration: it is not possible to say how many voters of each first-round candidate went to each side, because those who voted blank, spoiled their ballot or abstained in the first round may also have changed, and those who voted for either side may have switched their choice.

The states: Lula's share rose in all of them

Lula's share of the votes cast for him and for Flávio rose in all 27 states, from 1.2 points in Piauí to 4.3 points in Rio de Janeiro. The biggest gains were in Rio de Janeiro (+4.26), São Paulo (+3.76) and Goiás (+3.66). The smallest were in Piauí (+1.21), Bahia (+1.44) and Ceará (+1.99), states where Lula already had between 67% and 75% in the first round.

Only one state switched sides: Minas Gerais. Flávio led there in the first round by 588,612 votes (Lula had 47.32% between the two) and Lula won the runoff by 98,698 (50.39%). In the other 26 states, whoever led in the first round also won the runoff. Lula won in 13 states (Alagoas, Amapá, Amazonas, Bahia, Ceará, Maranhão, Minas Gerais, Pará, Paraíba, Pernambuco, Piauí, Rio Grande do Norte and Sergipe). Amapá, which Lula led in the first round by 225 votes, ended with a margin of 24,294.

Flávio also gained votes in most states (21 of 27), but lost votes in six: Acre, Amapá, Amazonas, Maranhão, Roraima and Tocantins, always in small amounts, from about a thousand to 15,000.

The North ended practically tied: in the projection the difference is two votes, a value the final count will change. In the first round, Flávio led the region by 458,000 votes.

Where the votes were

Among the regions, the gain in percentage points was largest in the Southeast and smallest in the Northeast. In votes, the two weighed about the same, because the Northeast's vote base is large. São Paulo, Minas Gerais and Rio de Janeiro add up to 2.75 million of the 6.63 million votes of margin gain (41%). The Southeast as a whole, 2.84 million (43%); the Northeast, 2.55 million (38%).

There is a pattern in the percentage points: the smaller Lula's share in the first round, the bigger the gain in the runoff. The correlation across the 27 states is −0.69. Part of this is arithmetic (where Lula had 30%, there is more room to grow than where he had 75%) and the chart does not prove a cause.

Another pattern: the states where candidates outside the main two had more votes in the first round were those with the biggest gains for Lula (correlation of 0.61 between the share of the others and the gain). Goiás had the largest share of other candidates (15.3% of the valid votes) and the third-largest gain for Lula; São Paulo (9.9%) and the Federal District (10.6%) were also above the simple average of the states (7.1%). The states with the fewest votes outside the two, such as Alagoas, Piauí, Maranhão and Bahia (between 4.8% and 5.3%), had smaller gains, with the exception of Alagoas (+3.27). The relationship exists in the numbers; the counting data do not show what the voters of those candidates did in the runoff.

Turnout: up in the country, down in the North

Turnout went from 78.92% to 80.78%. It rose in 18 states and fell in 9. The sharpest drops were in Amapá (−8.1 points), Roraima (−6.0) and Acre (−5.7); all seven states of the North fell. The biggest rises were in Bahia (+3.25), Pernambuco (+2.98) and São Paulo (+2.73).

In the big cities, the contrast shows up in a similar way: turnout rose 5.6 points in Lauro de Freitas (BA), 4.9 in Camaçari (BA) and 4.4 in Salvador, and fell 6.6 in Cruzeiro do Sul (AC), 6.2 in Santana (AP) and 6.0 in Macapá. Even in the North, where fewer people voted, Lula's share between the two rose in every state. The data do not say why turnout fell in those regions.

The 189 largest cities

The municipal analysis covers the 27 state capitals and another 162 large cities: 189 municipalities, 74.9 million voters, about 47% of the total. Lula rose in all of them, with a median gain of 3.4 points. By state, the average of the cities analyzed was +4.4 points in Rio de Janeiro (22 cities), +3.8 in São Paulo (39) and +2.4 in Bahia (11).

Nine cities switched sides, from Flávio in the first round to Lula in the runoff:

The biggest percentage jumps were in the state of Rio de Janeiro: eight of the first ten are cities in the state, led by Campos dos Goytacazes (+5.94 points), Belford Roxo (+5.02) and Itaboraí (+4.90). The smallest were in cities where Lula already had more than 80% of the votes: Parintins (AM, +0.55) and Crato (CE, +1.29). In votes, the biggest margin gain was in São Paulo (about 470,000), followed by Rio de Janeiro (251,000) and Salvador (182,000).

Compared with the 2022 runoff

In 2022, Lula received 60.35 million votes in the runoff (50.90%) against 58.21 million for Jair Bolsonaro. In 2026, the projection is 64.25 million (51.77%) against 59.84 million for Flávio. The comparison involves different elections, with another opponent and another electorate, and serves as a reference, not as a measure of cause.

By state, Lula's share was higher than in 2022 in 16 and lower in 11. The biggest rises were in the Federal District (+4.6 points), Amapá (+4.2), Acre (+3.7), Roraima (+3.6) and Rio de Janeiro (+3.4). The biggest drops were in Tocantins (−2.7), Maranhão (−1.6) and Rio Grande do Sul (−1.5). Minas Gerais stayed at the same level (50.2% in 2022, 50.4% in 2026).