Focus survey: Selic expectation for the end of next year
- Data for: Oct 2026
- Source: Central Bank of Brazil (Focus survey, median of expectations)
In the Focus survey of Oct 23, 2026, the median market expectation for the Selic rate at the end of 2027 was 11.75%.
Series used: Selic expectation for the end of next year, median (Focus, median; last survey of each month). Data updated on .
Market expectations today
| Forecast (median) | Year | Value |
|---|---|---|
| IPCA for the current year | 2026 | 5.19% |
| IPCA for the next year | 2027 | 4.34% |
| Selic at the end of next year | 2027 | 11.75% |
| GDP growth for the current year | 2026 | 1.80% |
Focus survey of Oct 23, 2026. Source: Central Bank of Brazil.
Value at the end of each year
| Year | Selic expectation for the end of next year, median |
|---|---|
| 2026 (through Oct 2026) | 11.75% |
| 2025 | 12.25% |
| 2024 | 14.75% |
| 2023 | 9.00% |
| 2022 | 12.25% |
| 2021 | 11.50% |
Analysis on this topic
What the Focus survey is
Every week the Central Bank asks financial market institutions what they expect for inflation, interest rates, the exchange rate and growth. The median result is published in the Focus Report. It is a market expectation, not an official forecast by the government or the Central Bank, and it often misses, especially over longer horizons.
How to read the chart
The expected Selic for the end of next year shows where the market thinks interest rates are heading.
The chart shows the last survey of each month over the past 5 years. Because the question is about the current (or next) year, the line mixes different years, so there is no comparison with 12 months earlier.
Frequently asked questions
What is the latest value of "Selic expectations (end of next year)"?
Selic expectation for the end of next year, median: 11.75%, for Oct 2026.
Is the Focus survey a government forecast?
No. It is the median of expectations from financial market institutions, collected by the Central Bank. It serves as a reference, but it is not an official projection.
Where does the "Selic expectations (end of next year)" data come from and when is it updated?
The data come from Central Bank of Brazil (Focus survey, median of expectations). This page shows the figure for Oct 2026 and the base was updated on Oct 26, 2026. The source may revise numbers already published.
Download the data and cite it
Full series in open format: CSV. Unit: % a year (median of expectations; last survey of each month).
Updated . How to cite: dadobruto.com. Selic expectation for the end of next year, median. Data: Central Bank of Brazil (Focus survey, median of expectations). Updated Oct 26, 2026. https://dadobruto.com/en/brazil-in-numbers/focus-selic-expectation-next-year
License: You may copy and republish the data and charts, including commercially, under the CC BY 4.0 license. The condition is to credit "dadobruto.com" and, when published online, to link to dadobruto.com or to the page the data came from. The original numbers follow the rules of Central Bank of Brazil (Focus survey, median of expectations).
Also searched as: Focus report, expected Selic.