Eleições 2026 · 2º turno · Análise preliminar
Resultado do 2º turno 2026: Lula virou Minas e somou 10,4 mi de votos
Com 99,8% das seções apuradas, Lula tem 51,8% dos votos válidos e Flávio Bolsonaro, 48,2%. Sete gráficos mostram em quais estados e cidades a votação mudou do 1º para o 2º turno, e o que os números não permitem concluir.
Por Dado Bruto · PRELIMINAR de 25 out. 2026 · 9 min de leitura
Fontes e método
51,8% dos votos válidos para Lula (PT), 2º turno de 2026 (projeção, 99,8% apurado)
48,2% dos votos válidos para Flávio Bolsonaro (PL)
4,4 mi de votos de margem de Lula; no 1º turno eram 2,2 milhões a favor de Flávio
1 de 27 estados mudou de lado entre os turnos: Minas Gerais
Lula terminou o 2º turno com 51,77% dos votos válidos, contra 48,23% de Flávio Bolsonaro, nos dados do TSE com 99,80% das seções apuradas (o restante foi projetado em cada estado). No 1º turno, Flávio tinha 47,03% e Lula, 45,16%. A margem de Lula sobre Flávio saiu de 2,22 milhões de votos a menos, no 1º turno, para 4,40 milhões a mais, no 2º: uma mudança de 6,63 milhões de votos.
Este texto mostra onde e quanto a votação mudou, estado por estado e nas 189 maiores cidades. Ele não explica por que cada eleitor votou como votou. O voto é secreto, e os números de apuração mostram totais, não trajetórias individuais.
O saldo nacional 1º turno 2º turno (projeção) Diferença Lula 53,88 mi (45,16%) 64,25 mi (51,77%) +10,37 mi Flávio Bolsonaro 56,10 mi (47,03%) 59,84 mi (48,23%) +3,74 mi Demais candidatos 9,32 mi (7,81%) – – Margem de Lula sobre Flávio −2,22 mi +4,40 mi +6,63 mi Votos válidos 119,30 mi 124,09 mi +4,79 mi Comparecimento 78,92% 80,78% +1,9 ponto Brancos e nulos 5,97 mi 4,15 mi −1,82 mi
Lula somou 10,37 milhões de votos entre os turnos (+19,2%) e Flávio, 3,74 milhões (+6,7%). Dos 14,10 milhões de votos que os dois ganharam juntos, 73,5% foram para Lula. Na disputa só entre os dois, a fatia de Lula passou de 48,99% para 51,77%, ou 2,79 pontos.
Lula somou 10,4 milhões de votos entre os turnos e Flávio, 3,7 milhões; os demais candidatos do 1º turno tinham 9,3 milhões
Variação de votos de cada lado entre 1º e 2º turno e as duas fontes de espaço (barras cinza). É contabilidade de totais, não migração de eleitores: o voto é secreto e esses dados não mostram quem mudou de escolha.
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0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Lula +10,37 mi Flávio Bolsonaro +3,74 mi Demais candidatos do 1º turno +9,32 mi Mais gente votando +2,97 mi Menos brancos e nulos +1,82 mi Votos novos de Lula e Flávio (14,10 mi) = votos dos demais no 1º turno (9,32 mi) + votos válidos a mais (4,79 mi). Os votos válidos a mais vêm de comparecimento maior (2,97 mi) e menos brancos e nulos (1,82 mi). Fonte: TSE, 1º turno (resultado final) e 2º turno (99,8% das seções apuradas em 25/10/2026, restante projetado em cada UF); 2º turno de 2022: TSE. Cálculos: Dado Bruto.
De onde veio esse espaço, em termos de contas: os demais candidatos tiveram 9,32 milhões de votos no 1º turno (Augusto Cury, 3,45 milhões; Renan Santos, 2,68 milhões; Ronaldo Caiado, 2,61 milhões; os outros nove candidatos somam o restante). Os votos válidos cresceram 4,79 milhões, por dois motivos: cerca de 2,97 milhões de pessoas a mais compareceram e 1,82 milhão de votos em branco e nulo deixaram de existir. A soma bate: 9,32 + 4,79 = 14,10 milhões. Mas isso é balanço, não migração: não dá para afirmar quantos eleitores de cada candidato do 1º turno foram para cada lado, porque quem votou em branco, nulo ou se absteve no 1º turno também pode ter mudado, e quem votou nos dois lados pode ter trocado de escolha.
Os estados: a fatia de Lula subiu em todos
A participação de Lula nos votos dados a ele e a Flávio subiu nos 27 estados, de 1,2 ponto no Piauí a 4,3 pontos no Rio de Janeiro. Os maiores ganhos foram no Rio de Janeiro (+4,26), em São Paulo (+3,76) e em Goiás (+3,66). Os menores, no Piauí (+1,21), na Bahia (+1,44) e no Ceará (+1,99), estados onde Lula já tinha entre 67% e 75% no 1º turno.
A fatia de Lula na disputa entre os dois subiu em todos os estados, de 1,2 ponto no Piauí a 4,3 pontos no Rio de Janeiro
Mudança, em pontos percentuais, da participação de Lula nos votos de Lula e Flávio somados: 2º turno menos 1º turno. Cor = quem venceu o 2º turno no estado.
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0,0 1,0 2,0 3,0 4,0 5,0 Rio de Janeiro +4,3 São Paulo +3,8 Goiás +3,7 Alagoas +3,3 Santa Catarina +3,3 Mato Grosso do Sul +3,2 Roraima +3,2 Paraná +3,2 Distrito Federal +3,1 Minas Gerais +3,1 Rio Grande do Sul +3,1 Mato Grosso +3,0 Amapá +2,9 Espírito Santo +2,8 Rondônia +2,6 Acre +2,6 Rio Grande do Norte +2,5 Paraíba +2,5 Tocantins +2,4 Sergipe +2,3 Amazonas +2,3 Pará +2,1 Maranhão +2,1 Pernambuco +2,0 Ceará +2,0 Bahia +1,4 Piauí +1,2 Lula venceu o 2º turno no estado Flávio venceu Fonte: TSE, 1º turno (resultado final) e 2º turno (99,8% das seções apuradas em 25/10/2026, restante projetado em cada UF); 2º turno de 2022: TSE. Cálculos: Dado Bruto.
Só um estado mudou de lado: Minas Gerais. Flávio liderava lá no 1º turno por 588.612 votos (Lula tinha 47,32% entre os dois) e Lula venceu o 2º por 98.698 (50,39%). Nos outros 26 estados, quem liderou no 1º turno também venceu o 2º. Lula venceu em 13 estados (Alagoas, Amapá, Amazonas, Bahia, Ceará, Maranhão, Minas Gerais, Pará, Paraíba, Pernambuco, Piauí, Rio Grande do Norte e Sergipe). O Amapá, que Lula liderava no 1º turno por 225 votos, terminou com 24.294 de margem.
Flávio também ganhou votos na maioria dos estados (21 de 27), mas perdeu votos em seis: Acre, Amapá, Amazonas, Maranhão, Roraima e Tocantins, sempre em quantidades pequenas, de cerca de mil a 15 mil.
Região Lula, 1º turno (só os dois) Lula, 2º turno Mudança Ganho de margem de Lula (votos) Norte 47,6% 50,0% +2,4 pts +458.837 Nordeste 67,4% 69,4% +2,0 pts +2.551.612 Centro-Oeste 36,6% 40,0% +3,4 pts +301.342 Sudeste 43,6% 47,2% +3,6 pts +2.839.546 Sul 34,2% 37,4% +3,2 pts +465.928 Exterior 52,2% 53,4% +1,2 pts +12.158
O Norte terminou praticamente empatado: na projeção a diferença é de dois votos, valor que a apuração final vai mudar. No 1º turno, Flávio liderava a região por 458 mil votos.
Onde estavam os votos
Entre as regiões, o ganho em pontos percentuais foi maior no Sudeste e menor no Nordeste. Em votos, os dois pesaram parecido, porque a base de votos do Nordeste é grande. São Paulo, Minas Gerais e Rio de Janeiro somam 2,75 milhões dos 6,63 milhões de votos de ganho de margem (41%). O Sudeste inteiro, 2,84 milhões (43%); o Nordeste, 2,55 milhões (38%).
São Paulo, Minas e Rio responderam por 2,7 milhões dos 6,6 milhões de votos de ganho de margem de Lula
Margem = votos de Lula menos votos de Flávio. Ganho = margem no 2º turno menos margem no 1º. Nacional: de −2,22 mi para +4,40 mi.
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0 mil 500 mil 1.000 mil 1.500 mil 2.000 mil São Paulo +1.391 mil Minas Gerais +687 mil Rio de Janeiro +670 mil Bahia +654 mil Pernambuco +466 mil Ceará +417 mil Maranhão +249 mil Rio Grande do Sul +229 mil Demais 18 estados + exterior +1.865 mil Fonte: TSE, 1º turno (resultado final) e 2º turno (99,8% das seções apuradas em 25/10/2026, restante projetado em cada UF); 2º turno de 2022: TSE. Cálculos: Dado Bruto.
Há um padrão nos pontos percentuais: quanto menor a fatia de Lula no 1º turno, maior foi o ganho no 2º. A correlação entre os 27 estados é de −0,69. Parte disso é aritmética (onde Lula tinha 30%, há mais espaço para crescer do que onde tinha 75%) e o gráfico não prova uma causa.
Onde Lula começou mais fraco, ele ganhou mais pontos: a correlação entre os 27 estados é de −0,69
Cada ponto é um estado (27). Horizontal: fatia de Lula entre Lula e Flávio no 1º turno. Vertical: ganho em pontos no 2º. Cor = vencedor do 2º turno. Correlação não prova causa; parte do padrão é aritmética (onde há mais a crescer, há mais a ganhar).
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1 pp 2 pp 3 pp 4 pp 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% AC AL AP BA DF GO MT MG PI RJ RS RR SC SP Fatia de Lula entre os dois no 1º turno Mudança no 2º turno Fonte: TSE, 1º turno (resultado final) e 2º turno (99,8% das seções apuradas em 25/10/2026, restante projetado em cada UF); 2º turno de 2022: TSE. Cálculos: Dado Bruto.
Outro padrão: os estados em que os candidatos fora da dupla tiveram mais votos no 1º turno foram os de maior ganho de Lula (correlação de 0,61 entre a fatia dos demais e o ganho). Goiás teve a maior fatia dos demais candidatos (15,3% dos válidos) e o terceiro maior ganho de Lula; São Paulo (9,9%) e Distrito Federal (10,6%) também ficaram acima da média simples dos estados (7,1%). Os estados com menos votos fora da dupla, como Alagoas, Piauí, Maranhão e Bahia (entre 4,8% e 5,3%), tiveram ganhos menores, com a exceção de Alagoas (+3,27). A relação existe nos números; os dados de apuração não mostram o que o eleitor desses candidatos fez no 2º turno.
Comparecimento: subiu no país, caiu no Norte
O comparecimento foi de 78,92% para 80,78%. Subiu em 18 estados e caiu em 9. As quedas mais fortes foram no Amapá (−8,1 pontos), em Roraima (−6,0) e no Acre (−5,7); os sete estados do Norte tiveram queda. As maiores altas foram na Bahia (+3,25), em Pernambuco (+2,98) e em São Paulo (+2,73).
O comparecimento subiu 1,9 ponto no país, mas caiu nos sete estados do Norte, com queda de 8,1 pontos no Amapá
Variação do comparecimento (% do eleitorado) entre 1º e 2º turno, em pontos percentuais, por estado. Cinza escuro = subiu, cinza claro = caiu.
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−8,0 −6,0 −4,0 −2,0 0,0 2,0 4,0 Bahia +3,2 Pernambuco +3,0 São Paulo +2,7 Mato Grosso do Sul +2,6 Paraná +2,5 Minas Gerais +2,5 Rio Grande do Norte +2,3 Rio Grande do Sul +2,2 Santa Catarina +2,0 Espírito Santo +1,9 Paraíba +1,8 Rio de Janeiro +1,7 Ceará +1,6 Distrito Federal +1,6 Sergipe +1,6 Goiás +1,5 Mato Grosso +1,3 Alagoas +0,5 Piauí 0,0 Rondônia −0,2 Maranhão −0,6 Tocantins −0,9 Pará −1,2 Amazonas −1,5 Acre −5,7 Roraima −6,0 Amapá −8,1 Fonte: TSE, 1º turno (resultado final) e 2º turno (99,8% das seções apuradas em 25/10/2026, restante projetado em cada UF); 2º turno de 2022: TSE. Cálculos: Dado Bruto.
Nas cidades grandes, o contraste aparece de forma parecida: o comparecimento subiu 5,6 pontos em Lauro de Freitas (BA), 4,9 em Camaçari (BA) e 4,4 em Salvador, e caiu 6,6 em Cruzeiro do Sul (AC), 6,2 em Santana (AP) e 6,0 em Macapá. Mesmo no Norte, onde menos gente votou, a fatia de Lula entre os dois subiu em todos os estados. Os dados não dizem por que o comparecimento caiu nessas regiões.
As 189 maiores cidades
A análise municipal cobre as 27 capitais e outras 162 grandes cidades: 189 municípios, 74,9 milhões de eleitores, cerca de 47% do total. Lula subiu em todas elas, com ganho mediano de 3,4 pontos. Por estado, a média das cidades analisadas foi de +4,4 pontos no Rio de Janeiro (22 cidades), +3,8 em São Paulo (39) e +2,4 na Bahia (11).
Nove cidades mudaram de lado, de Flávio no 1º turno para Lula no 2º:
Município Margem de Lula, 1º turno Margem de Lula, 2º turno Rio de Janeiro (RJ) −137.837 +113.193 Osasco (SP) −8.948 +21.133 Ananindeua (PA) −3.381 +15.092 Macapá (AP) −10.199 +4.886 São Vicente (SP) −13.665 +1.419 Ribeirão das Neves (MG) −4.210 +7.769 Cotia (SP) −6.247 +3.569 Araraquara (SP) −1.251 +5.481 Santa Luzia (MG) −8.077 +1.735
Os maiores saltos percentuais foram no estado do Rio: oito dos dez primeiros são cidades fluminenses, encabeçadas por Campos dos Goytacazes (+5,94 pontos), Belford Roxo (+5,02) e Itaboraí (+4,90). Os menores foram em cidades onde Lula já tinha mais de 80% dos votos: Parintins (AM, +0,55) e Crato (CE, +1,29). Em votos, o maior ganho de margem foi em São Paulo (cerca de 470 mil), seguido do Rio de Janeiro (251 mil) e de Salvador (182 mil).
Lula subiu nas 189 maiores cidades; oito dos dez maiores saltos foram no estado do Rio de Janeiro
Cada ponto é uma cidade (capitais e grandes municípios, ~47% do eleitorado); a linha tracejada marca 50% no 1º turno. Nove cidades viraram (em vermelho). A cobertura exclui os ~5.400 municípios menores.
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1 pp 2 pp 3 pp 4 pp 5 pp 6 pp 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% São Paulo Rio de Janeiro Salvador Campos dos Goytacazes Belford Roxo São Vicente Crato Parintins Lula no 1º turno (% entre Lula e Flávio) Ganho de Lula no 2º turno virada: Flávio liderava no 1º turno e Lula venceu no 2º demais cidades Fonte: TSE, 1º turno (resultado final) e 2º turno (99,8% das seções apuradas em 25/10/2026, restante projetado em cada UF); 2º turno de 2022: TSE. Cálculos: Dado Bruto. Em relação ao 2º turno de 2022
Em 2022, Lula teve 60,35 milhões de votos no 2º turno (50,90%) contra 58,21 milhões de Jair Bolsonaro. Em 2026, a projeção é de 64,25 milhões (51,77%) contra 59,84 milhões de Flávio. A comparação envolve eleições diferentes, com outro adversário e outro eleitorado, e vale como referência, não como medida de causa.
Por estado, a fatia de Lula foi maior que em 2022 em 16 e menor em 11. As maiores altas foram no Distrito Federal (+4,6 pontos), no Amapá (+4,2), no Acre (+3,7), em Roraima (+3,6) e no Rio de Janeiro (+3,4). As maiores quedas foram em Tocantins (−2,7), no Maranhão (−1,6) e no Rio Grande do Sul (−1,5). Minas Gerais ficou no mesmo patamar (50,2% em 2022, 50,4% em 2026).
Em relação ao 2º turno de 2022, Lula foi melhor em 16 estados e pior em 11; no país, 51,8% contra 50,9%
Participação de Lula nos votos válidos do 2º turno: 2026 menos 2022, em pontos percentuais, por estado. Vermelho = melhor para Lula que em 2022, cinza = pior.
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−3,0 −2,0 −1,0 0,0 1,0 2,0 3,0 4,0 5,0 Distrito Federal +4,6 Amapá +4,2 Acre +3,7 Roraima +3,6 Rio de Janeiro +3,4 Amazonas +2,9 Sergipe +2,3 Pernambuco +2,2 Alagoas +2,1 Espírito Santo +1,7 São Paulo +1,4 Rondônia +1,1 Paraíba +0,8 Rio Grande do Norte +0,6 Pará +0,3 Minas Gerais +0,2 Mato Grosso do Sul −0,1 Santa Catarina −0,1 Paraná −0,2 Bahia −0,8 Goiás −0,9 Mato Grosso −1,0 Piauí −1,0 Ceará −1,0 Rio Grande do Sul −1,5 Maranhão −1,6 Tocantins −2,7 Fonte: TSE, 1º turno (resultado final) e 2º turno (99,8% das seções apuradas em 25/10/2026, restante projetado em cada UF); 2º turno de 2022: TSE. Cálculos: Dado Bruto. Limitações Resultados: TSE. 1º turno, resultado final de 04/10/2026. 2º turno, apuração com 99,80% das seções (leitura das 21h18 de 25/10/2026), com o restante projetado em cada estado na proporção já apurada; a diferença esperada é de centésimos. 2º turno de 2022: TSE, dados abertos. Todos os percentuais são sobre votos válidos. "Só os dois" é a parcela de Lula em Lula + Flávio, que é a base comparável com o 2º turno. "Margem" é votos de Lula menos votos de Flávio. "Ganho de margem" é a margem do 2º turno menos a do 1º. Correlações são de Pearson entre os 27 estados (sem o exterior), calculadas sobre os dados da tabela de estados. Comparecimento e brancos/nulos nacionais vêm do resumo do TSE (valores arredondados em milhões); por isso a decomposição de 2,97 + 1,82 = 4,79 milhões é aproximada. Gráficos e tabelas CSV de apoio acompanham este texto. Limitações Texto preliminar: feito com 99,80% das seções. Será atualizado com a apuração completa e a base final do TSE. A análise municipal cobre 189 municípios (47% do eleitorado). Os cerca de 5.400 municípios menores ainda não entraram, e podem mostrar padrões diferentes dos das cidades grandes. As leituras das capitais (21h19) e das cidades grandes (entre 21h25 e 21h40) foram feitas em horários próximos, mas diferentes; por isso o mesmo município pode ter números ligeiramente diferentes entre tabelas (São Paulo, por exemplo, aparece com ganho de margem de 471.027 ou 474.516). Os dados são de totais por estado e município. Eles não permitem dizer quem mudou de voto, nem por quê. Explicar as razões exigiria pesquisas com eleitores, que não usamos aqui. Correções: nenhuma até o momento. Texto preliminar com 99,80% das seções apuradas; será atualizado com a apuração completa.
